Documentation Index
Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://docs.b1e55ed.permanentupperclass.com/llms.txt
Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.
b1e55ed — Signal Accountability for Capital Allocators
The decisive test: Do high-confidence forecasts produce better economic outcomes than low-confidence forecasts, net of fees? If yes, the system has edge. If no, it doesn’t. b1e55ed is built to answer this question with machine-verifiable evidence — not P&L claims, not backtests, not trust. Most trading systems give you a number and ask you to believe it. b1e55ed gives you a falsifiable hypothesis and the data to test it yourself.The Problem
You cannot verify most trading claims:- which signals drove which trades
- whether confidence estimates are calibrated
- whether the edge is repeatable or a regime artifact
How b1e55ed Works
Every forecast is a precise, immutable claim: direction, confidence, horizon. Timestamped and stored in an append-only, hash-linked event store. Retroactive modification breaks the hash chain. When the horizon resolves, the system scores the outcome. Every producer gets a Brier score — the proper scoring rule that rewards honest probability estimates, not just directional accuracy. A forecaster claiming “70% confident” should be correct 70% of the time. The Brier score measures whether they are. Producers accumulate karma based on whether their signals contributed to profitable trades. Karma uses an exponential moving average — consistently correct producers rise, consistently wrong producers fall, random producers drift neutral. When the system synthesizes signals, it weights producers by karma. The feedback loop closes — yesterday’s outcomes shape today’s weights.What You Can Verify
Before allocating capital, query any producer’s:- Directional accuracy by regime
- Brier calibration score
- Karma history (synthesis contribution to profitable trades)
- Track record under identical fee and slippage assumptions
The Proof Standard
Most systems benchmark against buy-and-hold. We benchmark against doing nothing. Four benchmarks b1e55ed must beat:- Flat/no-trade — zero exposure
- Naive momentum — buy above 20-day MA, sell below
- Equal-weight ensemble — average all signals equally
- Discretionary human — manual override